Practical Playoff Predictions

by Jes

With all of my heavy workload at work and school, and with the Canucks practicing their chip shots, I'm finding it hard to really get into the playoffs like I normally do.

That sucks, I know ... the best time of the year for hockey, and I'd need the hockey equivalent of Cialis to get me in the mood to watch the action on the ice.

Wayne, our Southern Correspondent, feels much the same way.

Maybe it's just me, but I'm just not feeling a buzz for this year's playoffs...I guess the only place in the U.S. where there would be palpable excitement would be Washington...

It used to be that the early rounds of the Cup playoffs were far more entertaining than the NBA's; but after the lockout, everything's now in the NBA's favor. Maybe it's Versus, I don't know...

If the NHL were a fast food, it would be Burger King french fries...

If the NHL were a TV sitcom, it would be "According to Jim"...

If the NHL were any other sport, it would be the PGA Tour MINUS Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

Well, that's rather harsh. Why aren't the NHL's first round match-ups entertaining? Hell, I can think of quite a few series that you ought to be watching.

Anyway, I might as well make some predictions and use my Jedi powers for something other than stealing Yu-Gi-Oh cards from schoolchildren.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Montreal (1) over Boston (8) in 5 games.
The Habs are a finely tuned machine, and the sum is greater than the yada yada yada. The Bruins are a surprise entrant into the playoffs, and will certainly be destroyed by Tomas Plekanec and the Montreal Power Play.

Pittsburgh (2) over Ottawa (7) in 7 games.
This should be a fun series to watch if you love goal scoring. Both the Sens and Pens have some of the most talented offenses in the NHL, and both teams have major question marks in goal.

Still, I'd go with the hot hand, and Crosby/Malkin is greater than Spezza/Heatley. The Sens are struggling, and are obviously mentally beat up.

Washington (3) over Philadelphia (6) in 6 games.
I don't think Philly is going to get away with murder as much as they want, and the Caps are just on frickin fire. With the addition of Huet and Fedorov, and Ovechkin on performance enhancers, the Flyers won't be able to keep up with the speedy Caps.

Good. Nobody wants Philly in there, anyway

New Jersey (4) over NY Rangers (5) in 7 games.
ZZZZ... the must-not-watch series of the first round pits two of the most defensive-minded teams in the league against each other. Thankfully, nobody outside of the New York area will be subjected to this dreck.

Martin Brodeur...never bet against him, especially when the Rangers' Henrik Lundqvist struggled most of the season.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Detroit (1) over Nashville (8) in 4 games.
I am not as high on Detroit as many others, but Nashville is not going to be the team to derail them. The Wings have a serious hole in goal, but should have no problem tearing the Preds a new one.

San Jose (2) over Calgary (7) in 6 games.
I did a preview of this series over at FanHouse. Suffice it to say, only fans of grinding, "Blue Collar" hockey will enjoy this series. Not fun to watch.

Minnesota (3) over Colorado (6) in 6 games.
As if I'd go against Demitra and Mr. Potatohead!

The Avs have a scary offence, but questionable goaltending. Minnesota, despite some hiccups, is still a far superior systematic team to the loosey-goosey Avalanche.

Ducks (4) over Dallas (5) in 5 games.
The Stars suck, and will choke in the playoffs once again. Turco is not that great of a goalie, and Mike Ribeiro is living off of an unusually high shot percentage. His scoring won't last ...

Ever since Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne returned, the Ducks we know and hate are back to their old "beat em on the ice, beat em in the alley" ways that won them a cup last year.

So, not one upset pick in the bunch. Not that I don't think the Avs could beat the Wild, but I just don't see much upset potential in the first round.

2007/08 Predictions: First Half Review

by Jes

Before the season, I polled a few friends and bloggers and put our predictions together with those from a few mainstream media sites. I do this most every season, and have a pretty good track record vs. the MSM boys. It's just bragging rights, and doesn't mean a whole lot, but I figure that my methodology for predictions is quite solid.

Now that we're half way through the season, here is a look at the predictions, together with the standings to date.



Now, I realize that some teams have played a few more games than others, so the tables could fluctuate quite easily. Still, we know that Toronto and Los Angeles are clearly in the tank and that Detroit and Ottawa are easily #1 in their conferences.

A few notes and totes ...

1. I took a HUGE chance on LA, figuring they'd find an offensive explosion with their signings and talent. Well, Handzus has been a big bust, Nagy hasn't quite shown us that full potential we keep waiting for, and goaltending became an even bigger issue than we figured. I knew this was a risky pick, and it blew up in my face. It doesn't help that Marc Crawford is clearly the worst coach in the entire NHL, even more so than Paul Maurice.

2. Phoenix was picked to be the biggest basement dweller (all except my g/f), but Wayne has the boys playing fairly well and Bryzgalov has helped them become a fairly tough team to play against.

3. Colorado is likely headed for a fall after long-term injuries to Ryan Smyth and Joe Sakic. Otherwise, they're doing as well as expected.

4. The New York Islanders are a big surprise in the East, but you look at a goal differential of -14, and look at their roster, and realize that their record is definitely better than it should be. Now, Ted Nolan is an excellent coach, but I expect this team, more than any other, to falter in the second half as reality sets in.

5. Montreal is also doing surprisingly well, thanks to a great Power Play and some good systematic play under coach Guy Carbonneau. Oh, and Tomas Plekanec = teh awesomez.

6. Tampa Bay was headed for a fall because their goaltending sucks and their defence is shaky. Well, the loss of Dan Boyle was obviously more than they could handle and their offence just can't make up for their other shortcomings.

7. Toronto - Time to give it up.

07-08 Predictions With Conviction

by Jes

Well, I finally put together the little predictions spreadsheet that I do every year, comparing my picks with Greg's, Mirtle's, and other mainstream writers and publications. Just to brag a little, I tend to kick the MSM's ass quite frequently, although I do have the benefit of time. Magazines have to come out with their predictions a bit earlier ... although they still tend to make really dumb picks.

I gathered my picks and those of Greg, my girlfriend, Mirtle, and Globe and Mail writers Tim Wharnsby, Eric Duhatschek, and Alan Maki. The magazines include The Score's Forecaster, The Hockey News, and McKeens.


Some notes and totes

1. Lone wolves - Only one person picked the Canucks to miss the playoffs (Mirtle = Hater), only one person (my lovely g/f) picked the Coyotes NOT to finish last in the West, and only McKeen's picked a non-Ottawa team to finish 1st in the East. Alan Maki went nuts and pick the Islanders to finish in the playoffs. Many others had them in the basement, or near to it.

2. Tampa Bay - I was one of three who picked them to finish out of the playoff race. With such a cruddy defence (Boyle is injured, too) and goaltending, I don't see how a one-and-a-half line team can be all that successful.

3. Calgary - I think Keenan will be a disaster for that club, and am waiting for Huselius and Tanguay to run screaming. Most other people don’t seem to agree, and have picked them for a playoff spot. I realize that their goaltending and D is great, but Keenan is just bad news.

4. Mirtle seems really high on Florida, for some reason. I agree with him that the team has some real potential, but I see more holes in their defence than Robert Pickton's case.

5. Pittsburgh should outscore the league by a WIDE margin. If one of their goalies could not suck, they'd be a real contender out of the East.

6. No change in the fact that the West still has the balance of power in terms of strong teams.